I think….
Posted by: ShowGoer 09:23 am EDT 04/28/24
In reply to: So what will the five Best Musical nominees be? - mikem 12:41 am EDT 04/27/24

… the 5 nominees will come from this 6:

Days of Wine and Roses
Hell’s Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water for Elephants

(I don’t think Here Lies Love, Back to the Future or any of the others makes it in over the above, but I could be wrong)

There are reasons not to nominate several of the above- but in this rich a season, and with so many new shows just opened, I don’t see enough hate for the current lot (nor enough love for most of the ones that are now gone) to justify the nominators making a statement by taking up more than one slot for things that will have closed 3 or 4 months (or more) before the ceremony.

My gut is telling me Roses doesn’t make it in, though I know many will say that’s crazy. But it still gets nominated for Score, Book, Actor and Actress (the latter of which where it could even win).
I think there’s a chance only one of the two jukebox-type shows gets in, in which case they could make a statement if they don’t believe Illinoise is a ‘real’ musical (the same reason I don’t think Here Lies Love gets in);
there’s also a chance that only one of the varyingly-reviewed recent original book musicals makes it in, in which case my gut tells me they nominate The Outsiders over Water for Elephants.

In the end I guess the only show I think is 100% safe is Suffs.
But if I were a betting man I guess I’d have to go with Hell’s Kitchen, Illinoise, The Outsiders, Suffs, and Water for Elephants.
(As to a comment below, yes I could easily see them opening the broadcast with a battle of the bands type mash-up of Back to the Future and Heart of Rock and Roll doing a little Huey Lewis medley- another way to hook viewers with songs they know while also promote the health of Broadway by showcasing two more currently-running shows that I doubt will be up for the big prize.)
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